Preface

The authors of this book met through the Osher Lifelong Learning Institute at the College of William & Mary. The Osher Institute offers courses on diverse topics of interest to adult learners. We initially attended each other’s Osher Institute courses. Barney taught several Osher courses centered on Critical Belief Analysis (CBA). Mike taught several Osher courses on critical thinking and homeland security. Our discussions over the years led us to conclude CBA could contribute to critical-thinking analyses in the domestic and international security fields. Thus, the idea for this book was born.

This book is a companion to Mike’s Security Analysis: A Critical-Thinking Approach.1 Security Analysis includes a short introduction to CBA.2 This book provides more in-depth and expanded CBA material. This book should be particularly interesting to mid-career security analysts — especially foreign policy analysts — who want to add a unique and powerful technique to their analytic toolkits for studying agency (decision-making and actions by individuals and groups).

The language of this book focuses on agents’ beliefs. The focus on agents (actors, believers, decision-makers) is a vital component of security analysis. Analysts may also use CBA to critique their analytic efforts. While this book focuses on security studies, CBA is applicable to any social science field studying decision-making and resultant actions.

Chapter 1 introduces CBA and its role in critical thinking. Chapters 2 to 5 describe the theoretical foundations of CBA. An analyst must understand this theoretical material before attempting an analysis. Chapter 6 provides a “CBA User’s Manual” and includes several figures (checklists) to assist in conducting a CBA. We recommend that readers print Figure 6.1, The Periodic Table of the Beliefs, now and refer to it frequently. Doing so will help you understand the overall structure of CBA and the relationships among the characteristics of belief to which CBA draws analysts’ attention. Figures 6.2 to 6.4 present step-by-step guidance for conducting a CBA. Chapter 7 provides an example CBA of U.S. President George W. Bush’s 2003 decision to invade Iraq.

We have done our best to make this book intelligible. Key concepts are bolded. A consolidated list of the Key Concepts is provided at the end of the book, allowing readers to check their comprehension of important material. Figures (i.e., tables, lists, and graphics) support the text throughout the book. Notes with reference material are found at the end of each section or chapter. Nonetheless, we expect many readers to initially find CBA’s concepts and techniques unfamiliar and challenging. Most are likely to find that becoming a skilled practitioner of CBA requires repeated reading of Chapters 2 to 5 and extensive practice using its analytic techniques.

We are indebted to those whose ideas and works have influenced us. Ultimately, all mistakes in facts, examples, sources, and analytic techniques are ours alone. Nothing in this book should be used to assert or imply U.S. government authentication or endorsement of any material presented. Nothing in this book intentionally touches on classified material.

Barnet D. Feingold, Ph.D.

Michael W. Collier, Ph.D.

Williamsburg, Virginia